Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
